Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 17, 2025: Gulf Disturbance Brings Rain Threat, Development Chances Remain Low
A weak system in the Gulf of Mexico—Invest 93L—is bringing heavy rain and storms to the Gulf Coast. Tropical development remains unlikely, but flooding risks persist. The rest of the Atlantic basin stays quiet… for now.
The Atlantic basin remains free of named tropical cyclones today, but a weak low-pressure system—Invest 93L—continues to bring rain and thunderstorms along parts of the Gulf of Mexico coast. While the system is unlikely to develop into a named storm, the primary concern is heavy rainfall and flash flooding across coastal regions from Florida to Louisiana. The rest of the basin remains quiet, but conditions are slowly trending toward increased activity.
Atlantic Basin: Quiet But Not Completely Clear
As of this morning’s update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
No active tropical cyclones
One area of interest: Invest 93L
Development odds remain low—about 30% over the next 7 days
No other tropical development expected across the Atlantic basin through the week
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Invest 93L: Soaking System Along the Gulf Coast
A disorganized low-pressure area near the northeastern Gulf continues to bring unsettled weather to parts of the Southeast U.S.:
Currently located offshore of the Florida Panhandle
Moving slowly westward toward the central Gulf Coast
Forecast models suggest inland movement into Louisiana or Mississippi by late Wednesday
Tropical development is unlikely due to land interaction and modest wind shear
Main concern:
Heavy rainfall (3–8 inches)
Localized flash flooding
Strong coastal thunderstorms and elevated rip current risk
Active weather alerts courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Fuel Is in Place
Ocean temperatures remain high enough to support development if conditions align:
Gulf of Mexico: 86–88°F in many areas, well above seasonal norms
Western Caribbean: Warm and primed for mid-to-late season activity
Main Development Region (MDR): Gradually warming but still suppressed by dry air
Sea Surface Temperature data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear and Atmospheric Conditions: Mixed Signals
Wind shear is moderate in the Gulf, which may continue to prevent storm organization
Atmospheric moisture is elevated, helping to support widespread thunderstorm activity
No organized convection in the MDR due to Saharan dry air
Relative Humidity (ECMWF) data courtesy of Windy.com
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Saharan Air Layer: Still Suppressing the Tropics
A significant plume of dry, dusty air continues to dominate the central and eastern Atlantic:
Disrupts storm cloud development
Introduces additional wind shear
Suppresses convection from African tropical waves
This layer is expected to weaken gradually in late July.
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data courtesy of Windy.com
Thunderstorm Activity: Gulf Coast Soaker
Florida Panhandle to Louisiana: Strong thunderstorms with heavy rain, especially along I-10 corridor
Central Florida: Scattered PM storms with high humidity and muggy conditions
Western Caribbean: Some convective clusters, but disorganized
Thunderstorm forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Florida Forecast: Humid, Stormy Conditions Persist
North Florida:
Mid to upper 80s, scattered storms possible
Central Florida:Near 90°F with humid air and afternoon thunderstorms
South Florida:Upper 80s, heavy downpours possible after 2 PM
Localized flooding could occur in urban and low-lying areas.
Rainfall forecast (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Stay Flood-Aware
Even weak systems like Invest 93L can cause dangerous flooding. Today’s tip:
Avoid driving on flooded roads
Review local flood zones and evacuation plans
Elevate valuables if you live in a flood-prone area
Sign up for weather alerts from your local emergency management office
Looking Ahead: A Reminder, Not a Threat
Although Invest 93L isn’t expected to strengthen significantly, it’s a good reminder that even weak systems can cause disruption. As we approach the back half of July, forecasters will continue monitoring the Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean, where development tends to increase.
Stay informed. Stay ready. And check back tomorrow for your daily update from Cat5Prep.com.
