Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – July 15, 2025: Gulf System Organizing, Tropics on Alert
A weak low over Florida is drifting into the Gulf of Mexico, producing heavy rain and prompting close monitoring. While development chances remain low, record-warm waters and shifting winds suggest more activity is coming.
The Atlantic remains officially quiet, but eyes are turning toward the Gulf of Mexico as a broad area of low pressure continues to develop. Though not yet a tropical depression, this system is producing heavy rainfall across parts of Florida and may slowly organize over the next few days. Elsewhere, warm sea surface temperatures and improving atmospheric conditions continue to set the stage for increased activity as July progresses.
Atlantic Basin: Watching the Gulf
As of this morning’s update from the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
No named tropical cyclones
One area of interest: Disturbance near Florida
Development potential: Low over 48 hours (10%), Slightly higher over 7 days (20%)
A broad, weak surface trough stretching across southern Florida is generating scattered storms and heavy rainfall. As it drifts westward into the Gulf of Mexico, slight development is possible—though wind shear and dry air may continue to limit its growth in the near term.
Regardless of tropical classification, this system is expected to bring:
Heavy rainfall across Florida and the Gulf Coast
Localized flash flooding
Coastal thunderstorms and rough surf
Satellite imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Sea Surface Temperatures: Primed and Warming
Waters across much of the Atlantic basin are running well above average:
Gulf of Mexico: 87–89°F (30–32°C) across much of the basin—ideal for storm formation
Caribbean Sea: Persistently warm, with temperatures near or above 86°F (30°C)
Main Development Region (MDR): Trending well above average for mid-July
This level of ocean heat content supports rapid intensification potential for any system that organizes in the coming weeks.
Sea Surface Temperature (ECMWF Analysis) courtesy of Windy.com
Atmospheric Conditions: Becoming More Favorable
Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
Wind Shear: Moderate across the Gulf and Caribbean, but forecast models show a gradual easing through late week
Moisture Levels: Improving, especially in the western Caribbean and southern Gulf
Upper-Level Winds: Starting to show a less hostile pattern over the Gulf and MDR
Overall, the atmospheric profile is trending toward neutral to favorable—a subtle but important change.
Relative Humidity data (ECMWF) courtesy of Windy.com
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): Retreating Slowly
Dry air remains across parts of the eastern Atlantic but is beginning to loosen its grip:
Still suppressing deep convection off the African coast
Expected to retreat westward and weaken through the next 7–10 days
This transition opens the door for tropical waves to survive and organize
Saharan Air Layer (Dust) data courtesy of Windy.com
Florida & Gulf Coast Forecast: Wet and Stormy
The disturbance currently over Florida is impacting much of the region:
Florida Peninsula
Scattered to widespread showers and storms today
Localized flooding possible, especially in urban areas
Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s°F
Northern Gulf Coast (AL/MS/FL Panhandle)
Cloudier skies and increasing storms through tomorrow
Elevated rainfall totals possible
Winds 10–20 mph with gusty thunderstorms
Radar imagery courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Secure Outdoor Items
With storms increasing across the Southeast:
Bring in or secure loose outdoor items like patio furniture, garden tools, and trash bins
Clear storm drains and gutters to reduce urban flooding risk
Monitor flash flood alerts in flood-prone neighborhoods
Looking Ahead: A Pattern Shift Is Coming
Although no named systems are expected in the next few days, the Gulf disturbance is a reminder that even weak systems can cause significant impacts. Sea surface temperatures and weakening wind shear are setting the table for development in the latter half of July.
Stay tuned, stay prepared, and check back daily with Cat5Prep for accurate, actionable updates.