Alex Mitchell 6/19/25 Alex Mitchell 6/19/25

Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 19, 2025: Still Down South – Pacific Watches Erick

The Atlantic remains storm-free, but Hurricane Erick—a powerful Category 4 storm—gains strength in the Eastern Pacific. Learn what this means for the Atlantic basin and why now is the time to prepare.

The Atlantic basin remains quiet today, with no active tropical cyclones and no development expected over the next 7 days, according to the National Hurricane Center’s latest 2 AM and 8 AM EDT outlooks nhc.noaa.gov. While the Atlantic sleeps, attention is turning to a powerful system in the Pacific.

Atlantic Basin: Calm Waters, No Alerts

There are still no named storms or areas under tropical monitoring. The graphical and textual 7-day outlooks show zero development chance, meaning the basin continues its quiet stretch early in the season . Early June silence isn’t unusual—but with warm seas in place, conditions could shift quickly.

Satellite view via Windy.com

Pacific Perspective: Erick Now a Category 4

In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Erick has rapidly intensified into an “extremely dangerous” Category 4 storm with 145 mph sustained winds, now only about 70 miles west-southwest of Puerto Ángel, Mexico, heading for landfall.
This storm is expected to bring destructive winds, brutal rainfall (8–16 inches), mudslides, and severe coastal flooding across southern Mexico.

Hurricane Erick Wind Speed Probabilities

Hurricane Erick Cone

Sea Surface Temperatures: Atlantic Warming Continues

Gulf & Western Caribbean: SSTs remain warm at 84–88 °F, maintaining energy supply for potential tropical systems.
Main Development Region (MDR): Ocean temperatures are also above normal, setting the stage for Atlantic activity later in the season.

Sea Surface Temperature via Windy.com

Atmospheric Conditions: Suppressive Air Masses

Wind Shear Courtesy of https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

Wind shear: Still moderate to high across key development areas, limiting near-term storm formation.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL): A persistent dust plume continues to suppress early-season activity in the eastern Atlantic.
Moisture: Slowly increasing in the Gulf and western Caribbean, helping build storm potential.

Saharan Air Layer (Dust) via Windy.com

Daily Weather: Standard June Patterns

Florida & Southeast U.S.: Afternoon and evening thunderstorms remain widespread but non-tropical.
Caribbean & Atlantic: Quiet and storm-free, with no signs of developing systems.
Air Quality: Possible haze in Florida due to advancing Saharan dust.

Thunderstorm Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com

Florida Forecast (June 19)

Highs: Upper 80s to low 90s °F (31–33 °C)
Humidity: High—typical muggy summer
Rain: Scattered PM showers and thunderstorms
Visibility: Hazy in some areas
Winds: Light, occasional gusts near storm cells

Rainfall Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com

Prep Tip of the Day: Cross-Basin Awareness

Even without Atlantic storms, Pacific activity underscores a critical point:

Monitor systems across basins, not just the Atlantic
Understand conditions building globally—warm seas, dust, wind shear shifts
Use this calm time to update emergency contacts, test NOAA radios, and finalize supply kits

Looking Ahead: Calm Now, But It Won’t Last

No Atlantic activity is expected this week, but elevated ocean temperatures, decreasing wind shear, and diminishing dust suggest a shift is coming. Hurricane Erick in the Pacific could hint at similar atmospheric boosts affecting the Atlantic soon.

Stay tuned for daily updates from Cat5Prep.com—the next tropical trigger could arrive sooner than you think.

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Alex Mitchell 6/18/25 Alex Mitchell 6/18/25

Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – June 18, 2025: Tropics Stay Quiet as Pacific Storms Steer Focus

The Atlantic remains storm-free on June 18, with no tropical systems expected over the next 7 days. But warming ocean temps and an active Pacific raise long-range concerns.

The Atlantic basin remains calm today, with no active tropical cyclones and no systems being monitored for development in the National Hurricane Center’s latest 2 AM EDT outlook. This early-season quiet continues, but shifting global patterns—warm oceans, dust, and Pacific activity—are fueling a cautious watchfulness.

Daily Hurricane Update from NOAA and NHC for June 18, 2025

Atlantic Basin: Clear, But Keep Watching

No Atlantic systems are active, and the seven-day forecast shows no tropical development expected this week . While mid-June calm is common, meteorologists note stronger global volatility due to cross-basin interactions and shifting climate signals.

Satellite view via Windy.com

Pacific Spotlight: Tropical Storm Erick on the Rise

Wind Speed Probability Tropical Storm Erick

All eyes are on the Eastern Pacific, where Tropical Storm Erick is rapidly strengthening—forecast to become the season’s first Pacific hurricane. Though Erick poses no threat to U.S. shores, it demonstrates the early-season dynamism that Atlantic may encounter soon.

Wind Gust Accumulation Forecast (ECMWF) via Windy.com

Sea Surface Temperatures: Heat Builds Beneath the Calm

Gulf & Western Caribbean: SSTs remain well above average (84–88 °F), providing potential fuel.
Main Development Region (MDR): Water temperatures are warming and trending warmer than early June norms, laying a foundation for development later in the season.