Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 1, 2025: Quiet Tropics, Conditions Gradually Shifting
No storms expected as August begins, but multiple tropical waves are being tracked. Conditions are evolving and a shift toward higher hurricane activity is expected in the coming weeks.
*Those who like data, continue reading. Those it prefer the quick version, jump to the TL;DR here.
As we enter August—historically the onset of peak Atlantic hurricane activity—there are no active tropical cyclones and no development expected over the next seven days. However, several tropical waves are moving westward, and environmental conditions are slowly transitioning toward a more favorable pattern for storm formation later in the month.
Atlantic Basin Overview
According to the 8:00 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) from the National Hurricane Center:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days WikipediaNational Hurricane Center
While no waves are currently listed as having development potential, multiple waves are traversing the eastern Atlantic.
Tropical Waves & Deep Tropics
Forecast models highlight several waves across the Atlantic, though none show organization yet:
A wave near 43–50°W, moving west at ~10–15 kt, producing scattered convection.
Another wave near 30°W, just moving off Africa, with intermittent thunderstorms.
These waves will be closely monitored as they enter warmer waters and encounter decreasing wind shear.
Environmental Conditions Snapshot
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):
Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean: 29–31 °C (84–88 °F), sustaining high energy potential.
MDR: Slightly above-average values, but cooling compared to June trends .
Wind Shear:
Elevated across the Caribbean and central Atlantic—a limiting factor in early July—but gradual easing is forecast by mid-August.
Saharan Air Layer (SAL):
Persistent dry air suppressing convection across most of the MDR, but expected to weaken soon.
Atmospheric Moisture:
Enhanced moisture is slowly building in the western Atlantic, improving potential for organized convection.
Gulf of America (Mexico) & Caribbean Conditions
No disturbances are being tracked.
A dominant high-pressure ridge produces stable flow across both basins.
Offshore marine conditions remain calm, with scattered showers typical for this time of year.
Gulf of America (Mexico)
Caribbean
Florida Forecast
Highs: Low 90s °F, sticky and humid.
Precipitation: Scattered afternoon storms driven by afternoon heating and sea breeze convergence.
Winds: Light and variable inland, shifting southeast near the coast.
Rain forecast visualization courtesy of Windy.com
Prep Tip of the Day: Bookmark Tropical Outlook Sources
Aeitto 12V Car Refrigerator
25Qt electric cooler/freezer with digital temp control — perfect for RVs, camping, and road trips.
With activity still weeks away:
Confirm you can receive alerts from the National Hurricane Center.
Bookmark reliable sources such as Cat5Prep.com.
Ensure household members know where your hurricane documents and kits are stored.
Outlook
No cyclone formation is expected this week, but climatology and model trends suggest early-to-mid August could mark the beginning of increased tropical activity. The bulk of Atlantic season activity historically occurs after August 1, with the first hurricane typically forming around August 11.
TL;DR – August 1, 2025 Atlantic Forecast
No active or developing storms in the basin.
Several tropical waves tracked, none organized.
SSTs are warm; shear and SAL still suppressive.
A shift toward higher activity likely in early August.
Today is a good day to finalize hurricane plans and stay alert.
