Atlantic Hurricane Outlook – August 11, 2025: 97L Emerges—First Hurricane of the Season Likely Later This Week
TLDR Version, Click Here
The Atlantic remains calm at the moment, with no active tropical cyclones. However, forecasters are closely watching Invest 97L, an African-origin tropical wave now showing a high chance (90%) of developing into Tropical Storm Erin and potentially becoming the season’s first hurricane. No immediate threats to the U.S. are expected, but vigilance is advised.
Atlantic Basin Summary
No active “NAMED” storms currently present in the basin. The only system producing notable circulation is Invest 97L off Africa.
Invest 97L has a 90% chance of developing into a tropical storm this week and may intensify into a hurricane later on.
Key Environmental Conditions
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs):
Waters across the Atlantic, especially near and north of the Caribbean, remain exceptionally warm, fueling potential tropical development.Seasonal Trend:
Conditions are strengthening as August progresses. Models anticipate a more active period with increasing wave activity and supportive oceanic and atmospheric factors.
Outlook & Forecast
Primary Focus: Invest 97L—expected to become Tropical Storm Erin soon, with potential to evolve into a hurricane. Its exact trajectory is uncertain, ranging from north of the Caribbean to possible scenarios involving Bermuda or further north.
Other Areas: Additional waves may follow behind 97L, contributing to a potentially busy mid- to late-August period.
GEPS Tracks moving NE before US Landfall
GEFS Tracks moving NE before US Landfall
Projected Intensity of 97L
TL;DR – August 11 Summary
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No storms currently active in the Atlantic.
Invest 97L likely to become Tropical Storm Erin this week; hurricane development possible.
Extremely warm water and seasonal alignment support increasing activity.
Too early to determine if any system will threaten land—stay updated.
Check back daily for updates at CAT5Prep.com.
